Winter is here … even though it may not feel like it.

With today marking the first day of winter, much of Australia can look forward to a warmer-than-average season, after a historically cold May for much of the east coast.
The Bureau of Meteorology’s (BoM) winter outlook points to temperatures across the country being warmer and conditions drier than median figures, from June to August.
As ocean temperatures approach El Niño thresholds, minimum temperatures will also likely be above average.
The BoM winter outlook shows the likelihood of higher-than-average temperatures in July, which is expected to be warmer than June.
A positive Indian Ocean dipole is forecast with the potential El Niño weather event, with Weatherzone meteorologist Ben Domensino saying it would lead to both warmer days and colder nights.
“Those are two climate drivers that promote dry and warm weather in Australia during winter. So with those external broadscale forces at play, we’re most likely looking at drier-than-average weather for most of Australia and warmer-than-average days, but colder-than-average nights.
“Because if they do both develop, they’ll be reinforcing each other and the impacts would be widespread. Mostly inland areas have the strongest influence from El Niño and the Indian Ocean dipole,” he said.

The warmer temperatures come after Australia’s east coast shivered through a month of abnormally cold nights, with Sydney and Brisbane recording some of their coldest May temperatures on record.
In Sydney, both Observatory Hill (coastal)and Richmond airport (inland)recorded their lowest minimums in May since 1957.
“It’s very unusual to see overnight temperatures this cold in May,” Domensino said.
“It normally is a time of year where we start to see nights becoming colder over eastern Australia and more frequent frosts developing, but temperatures have been a few degrees even lower than average this year.”
He said the colder nights followed an autumn that was “in transition” between the wetter La Niña months and the drier El Niño months to come.
“The combination of clear skies, light winds and cold air has caused minimum temperatures to be about three to five degrees below average in parts of New South Wales this May,” Domensino said.
“It’s a combination of those developing climate drivers in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, but also the local weather patterns near Australia that have also played a big role in how cold it’s been.”

Source: The Guardian Australia.